13 February, 2014

3-1-7 understanding systems: Uncertainty and change

We can't see the future, we can just simulate what is most likely going to happen depending on what is happening now and extrapolate the most likely predictions of what may happen after certain period/s of time.

 That's how predictions and risks are assessed and calculated

But we know also that any complex system is never static. The environment is one of the most complex systems we know of. Our predictability and extrapolating abilities are very limited with such very complex systems. The environment always surprises us with what we don't expect … either with a fortunate or unfortunate event/s 

Do differentiate quickly between these three terms:
-          Chance: a predictable good event
-          Risk: a predictable bad event
-          Uncertainty: something we can't be prepared for because it is not predictable     
The best quote I heard that explains uncertainty is:
"You never step in the same river twice"

So, if something is unknown and I can't predict it … what am I supposed to do about it?

1-     Don't underestimate how RANDOM things are on the fortunate and unfortunate side
2-     Plan always a step or two steps ahead for any chances or risks you can think of
3-      Be prepared mentally for any unexpected change. Prepare and train yourself not to panic when you face unexpected twist

4-     Add a factor of resilience in your system and don't build your system in a way that it will collapse if anything unexpected happen to it … don't make so stiff and rigid