What is the relation between
uncertainty, change, and interdependence?
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What makes a complex system a very hard thing to
understand and predict is that it has a unique and unpredictable
interdependencies that we don't figure out yet. So, there is still uncertainty
about a lot of stuff in it
That's best explained by a term
called (Second order effect):
We can make a change to a very
complex system, and we may predict what is the direct consequence of that move.
But there are consequences to this consequence and there are effects to this …
which is known by (second and third and fourth order effects) … that in the
end; the final effect of this may result in things COMPLETELY opposite to what
you intend to get by taking this course of action in the first place
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The smallest change in a complex system results in
huge consequences, mostly unpredictable
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The basic rule of a complex system is: you DON'T mess
with a system that you don't fully understand. You will do more harm by messing
with it than if you let it by itself
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Internalizing these concepts and understanding them is
the best way to begin dealing with such systems
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