10 March, 2014

3-3-16 improving systems: Scenario planning

All the things we do based on some predictions of the future … you say hi to someone expecting that he will reply the same. If you are sure that he will reply by hitting you, you will never say anything to him
But the one and only sure thing about the future is that you can't be 100% sure of anything
-          The best way to deal with the unknowability of the future is to assume that you can only put some assumptions of what may happen. Of course some assumptions are more probable than others, but all of them has a chance of happening

-          So for anything you try to predict don't be satisfied with one scenario. Write down the best case and worst case scenario and the in-between ones and take measures to be prepared for all of them